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What is an illusory correlation?

  1. A strong correlation between two variables

  2. A perceived relationship where none exists

  3. The outcome of a well-designed experiment

  4. The consensus effect in surveys

The correct answer is: A perceived relationship where none exists

An illusory correlation refers to a situation where people perceive a relationship between two variables that does not actually exist. This cognitive bias occurs when individuals believe that two events or variables are related, even when statistical evidence shows no such correlation. For example, someone might think that wearing a particular color brings good luck in exams, equating the color with academic success, even when there is no actual statistical relationship between the two. In contrast, a strong correlation between two variables indicates a genuine relationship supported by data, which is not what an illusory correlation represents. A well-designed experiment aims to establish causal relationships, while the consensus effect refers to the tendency for people to align their opinions with those of others in survey contexts. Thus, the option that correctly identifies the nature of an illusory correlation is the one that states it is a perceived relationship where none exists.