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What is the representativeness heuristic?

  1. A strategy for estimating the likelihood of an event based on how typical it seems

  2. A way of framing an issue to affect decisions

  3. A rule of thumb for validating one's preconceptions

  4. The habit of being more confident than correct

The correct answer is: A strategy for estimating the likelihood of an event based on how typical it seems

The representativeness heuristic is a cognitive shortcut that involves estimating the likelihood of an event or the category to which it belongs based on how similar it is to a typical case or prototype. This means that when people encounter a new situation, they tend to assess it by comparing it to their existing mental prototypes or representations of similar events. For example, if someone meets a person who is shy and enjoys reading, they might assume that this person is more likely to be a librarian than a salesperson because the traits fit their mental image of what a librarian is like. This heuristic can lead to quick judgments, but it can also result in errors or biases, especially if the prototypes are not representative of the actual statistical probabilities involved. In this way, the heuristic simplifies decision-making, but it can sometimes overlook relevant information or lead to incorrect conclusions. The other options refer to different cognitive biases or strategies, but do not define the representativeness heuristic in the context provided.